Luigi Speranza, BNP Paribas’ head of European economics, says the global economy should see a “V-shaped” rebound from the coronavirus without long-term ill effects, though the short-term impact could be significant.

“The good news is the shock is temporary,” Speranza said today in a press briefing at the French bank’s U.S. headquarters in midtown New York. This was the pattern with previous pandemics, including SARS and the swine flu. While the coronavirus is likely to have wider-ranging effects than SARS due to dramatic increases in global integration in the years since, these will ultimately be short-lived. The overriding story of global economic growth for 2020 remains intact, Speranza said.

The outbreak that started in Wuhan, China has caused economists to slash their forecasts for the global economy. For Speranza, too, it dampened what had been a growing optimism on the heels of the “Phase One” trade deal between the U.S. and China. Instead, uncertainty has returned. “The question is, how long will it go on?” he asked. The longer the shock lasts, the greater the likelihood of second-hand effects, which could eventually become permanent.

But these remain remote and Speranza is confident of a quick return to normalcy once there is some certainty that the virus is contained. This will be helped along by a “broad and forceful response from the Chinese authorities,” which will likely result in a sharp, front-loaded impact on growth. There simply isn’t enough slack in the global economy to warrant fears of a demand slowdown. In the world’s largest economy in particular, consumer spending remains buoyant with record low unemployment. Even manufacturing activity is robust, judging by payrolls (if not necessarily PMI surveys).